Stella Thio PropNex Realty
A free framework from Stella Thio · built on URA and HDB records

Most people buy a property. Then pay it off for 30 years. Few ever build real wealth from it.

The difference is rarely income or luck. It is whether the first property was ever used to make a second move, and whether that move was priced right. I put the transaction record behind both questions into one framework. It is free, and it is specific.

Send me the framework Show me the numbers first Free PDF, sent to your WhatsApp. No obligation, no hard sell.
+53.9%
Median 4-room HDB resale price, 2017 to 2026. The equity most owners have never touched.
+22.2%
Median five-year resale gain across 243 condo projects. The best did +42%, six fell.
S$220,611
Interest paid on a S$500,000 loan at 2.6% over 30 years. Paying it off is not the same as building.
Already know you want it?

Get The Second Move Framework now

A six-chapter PDF that shows what your current home is actually worth against recorded sales, how much of that is really yours after the loan and CPF refund, and how to judge the second property by the numbers that decide profit or loss. Sent to your WhatsApp within a working day.

  • 01Equity worksheet: recorded comparables, outstanding loan, CPF accrued interest, what is left.
  • 02The five-year record of 243 condo projects, sorted, so you can see where the gains actually landed.
  • 03The exit-buyer checklist Stella uses before she lets a client commit to a unit.

Send me the framework

Free PDF. Your details go to Stella only.

Please enter your name.
+65
Enter an 8-digit Singapore mobile number starting with 8 or 9.
Please enter a valid email address.
Pick the one closest to you.

By sending this you agree to be contacted by phone, SMS, email or WhatsApp about your request, under the PDPA. Tell us to stop at any time and we will.

Does this sound familiar?

Thoughts I hear from owners eight years into a 30-year loan

None of these are wrong. They are just the questions nobody has answered with actual figures.

The 30-year arithmetic

Paying off a loan is a cost. It only becomes wealth if the asset moves.

Take a S$500,000 loan, the kind of figure a 4-room upgrader or a first condo buyer signs for. Here is what 30 years of "just paying it off" looks like on paper, at the rates in force this quarter.

S$2,002
a month, for 360 months

S$500,000 at the HDB concessionary rate of 2.6% over 30 years. Total repaid: S$720,611.

S$220,611
of that is interest

Money that leaves the household and never comes back, whatever the property does. At a 1.40% fixed bank rate the monthly figure is S$1,702 and the interest S$112,616.

S$219,514
CPF accrued interest to refund

If S$200,000 of CPF Ordinary Account money went in, that is the interest at 2.5% compounded over 30 years that must go back into CPF on sale, before any cash reaches you.

Rates: CPF Board news release of 26 May 2026, CPF Ordinary Account 2.5% and HDB concessionary loan rate 2.6% for 1 Jul to 30 Sep 2026. Bank rate: lowest two-year fixed package published 4 Sep 2026 at 1.40% (indicative, S$1M loan). Monthly figures use standard amortisation; your bank's schedule will differ slightly.

So the loan gets paid. The question the headline is really asking is what the property did in the same 30 years, and whether anyone ever acted on it. That record is below.

Step one: what you already hold

The first property has been working. Most owners never collect.

A 4-room flat bought in 2017 at the all-Singapore median of S$408,000 would sell today at a median of S$628,000. That is S$220,000 of equity created by doing nothing but living there. It sits in the flat until the owner decides to use it, and most never do.

TownGainMedian 2017Median 2026ChangeSales 2017 / 2026
All towns+S$220,000S$408,000S$628,000+53.9%8,604 / 8,187
Toa Payoh+S$404,944S$598,000S$1,002,944+67.7%230 / 296
Kallang/Whampoa+S$375,000S$533,000S$908,000+70.4%219 / 228
Queenstown+S$344,444S$705,000S$1,049,444+48.9%184 / 224
Sembawang+S$252,000S$348,000S$600,000+72.4%248 / 279
Tampines+S$238,000S$430,000S$668,000+55.3%510 / 677
Punggol+S$236,056S$443,944S$680,000+53.2%776 / 645
Hougang+S$230,444S$388,000S$618,444+59.4%410 / 438
Woodlands+S$203,000S$345,000S$548,000+58.8%723 / 657
Ang Mo Kio+S$152,000S$468,000S$620,000+32.5%250 / 221
Jurong East+S$130,000S$420,000S$550,000+31.0%138 / 98

HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg, 4-room flats, full year 2017 against 1 Jan to 18 Sep 2026, retrieved 18 Sep 2026. Medians of recorded resale prices; all 25 towns are in the framework, 10 shown here. Past transactions do not predict future prices.

Two things to notice. The equity is real and it is large. And it is uneven: Ang Mo Kio and Jurong East owners saw half the percentage gain of Toa Payoh owners over the same nine years. Where you bought decided that, and it will decide the second move too.

Step two: what the second property did

243 condo projects, five years apart. Here is the whole spread.

I took every non-landed project with at least ten recorded resale caveats in both Sep 2021 to Aug 2022 and Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, and compared the median psf. Not a hand-picked list. Every project that qualified.

+22.2%
median gain across all 243

The middle project. Half did better, half did worse.

+7.8% to +33.3%
the 10th to 90th percentile

Eight in ten projects landed inside this range. 44 gained 30% or more.

6
projects fell

All but one in the Core Central Region. 27 gained under 10%, which after stamp duty and interest is roughly break-even.

By region, resale psf

RegionChange2022 psf2026 psfCaveats
Outside Central (OCR)+25.0%S$1,260S$1,5756,419 / 4,023
Rest of Central (RCR)+23.6%S$1,587S$1,9633,532 / 2,524
Core Central (CCR)+8.8%S$2,013S$2,1902,172 / 1,504

URA caveat data, private non-landed resale, calendar 2022 against 1 Jan to 18 Sep 2026, retrieved 18 Sep 2026. Median psf on strata area.

Top and bottom of the 243

ProjectChange2021/22 psf2025/26 psfDistrict
Parc Vera+42.1%S$1,111S$1,578D19
Waterview+40.5%S$1,081S$1,519D18
River Isles+40.4%S$1,107S$1,554D19
Kovan Melody+38.4%S$1,305S$1,806D19
Clover by the Park+37.2%S$1,430S$1,961D20
One-North Residences−1.9%S$1,545S$1,516D05
The Coast at Sentosa Cove−7.9%S$1,651S$1,521D04
V on Shenton−10.3%S$2,102S$1,885D01
Marina One Residences−20.7%S$2,407S$1,908D01

Same dataset and windows. Minimum 10 resale caveats per project per window; The Coast at Sentosa Cove is at 11 and 14, the thinnest sample shown. Full 243-row table is in the framework.

Same five years, two outcomes

A million dollars of difference on the same size of unit

Two projects, both well known, both completed, both bought by people who believed they were making a sound decision. The recent sales under each are mid-sized units of 85 to 125 sqm, the size an upgrader family buys. The gap between the two projects on a 1,000 sq ft unit is roughly S$1,000,000, and it was decided at entry.

Property A · District 19 · OCR

Kovan Melody

Kovan Road · condominium · 99-year lease from 2004
+38.4%
median resale psf, 2021/22 to 2025/26 · about +S$501,000 on a 1,000 sq ft unit
2021/22 medianS$1,305 psf
2025/26 medianS$1,806 psf
Caveats35 / 22
MonthSizePricepsfFloor
Aug 20261,292 sq ftS$2,515,000S$1,94711–15
Jul 20261,227 sq ftS$2,320,000S$1,89101–05
Jun 20261,227 sq ftS$2,200,000S$1,79306–10
Property B · District 1 · CCR

Marina One Residences

Marina Way · apartment · 99-year lease from 2011
−20.7%
median resale psf, 2021/22 to 2025/26 · about −S$499,000 on a 1,000 sq ft unit
2021/22 medianS$2,407 psf
2025/26 medianS$1,908 psf
Caveats89 / 49
MonthSizePricepsfFloor
Sep 20261,130 sq ftS$2,150,000S$1,90201–05
Jul 20261,109 sq ftS$2,170,000S$1,95706–10
Jun 20261,206 sq ftS$2,601,688S$2,15816–20

URA caveat data, resale, retrieved 18 Sep 2026. Medians and caveat counts cover all unit sizes in each project across the two windows (Sep 2021 to Aug 2022; Oct 2025 to Sep 2026). The three rows under each card are the most recent recorded resales of 85 to 125 sqm units. Tenure and street are as recorded in the caveat. Dollar figures are the psf change multiplied by 1,000 sq ft, before stamp duty, interest and fees. Individual results vary with floor, stack, condition and timing.

The person who bought Property B was not careless. They bought a landmark project in the centre of town at what looked like a fair price. What they did not check was what the resale market would pay for it against the supply around it. That is the check the framework is built around.

The decision that decides it

New launch or resale won't decide your profit. Your entry price will.

Here are 28 projects where the developer was still selling in late 2021 to 2022 and where there are enough resales this year to compare. Same launch period, similar loans, very different outcomes.

ProjectChangeDeveloper psf 2021/22Resale psf 2025/26CaveatsDistrict
JadeScape+33.0%S$1,771S$2,35524 / 63D20
Parc Clematis+28.1%S$1,761S$2,255328 / 130D05
Clavon+26.5%S$1,701S$2,15265 / 37D05
Treasure at Tampines+24.6%S$1,444S$1,799101 / 120D18
Affinity at Serangoon+19.7%S$1,542S$1,84672 / 70D19
Midwood+11.0%S$1,729S$1,919148 / 54D23
The Florence Residences+10.0%S$1,732S$1,904250 / 89D19
Normanton Park+8.4%S$1,856S$2,012666 / 62D05
Kent Ridge Hill Residences+2.2%S$1,951S$1,99440 / 33D05
Kopar at Newton+1.0%S$2,487S$2,511146 / 23D09
Avenue South Residence−6.1%S$2,321S$2,180245 / 45D03
The M−9.2%S$2,764S$2,51039 / 13D07

URA caveat data, retrieved 18 Sep 2026. Developer psf is the median of New Sale caveats from Sep 2021 to Dec 2022 (later-phase developer sales, not launch-weekend prices). Resale psf is the median of resale caveats Oct 2025 to Sep 2026. Minimum 20 developer and 8 resale caveats; 28 projects qualify, 12 shown. The M, at 13 resales, is the thinnest sample shown.

Most buyers in this table signed loans of 25 to 30 years. Four years on, a Parc Clematis buyer is sitting on a 28% gain they can use for a third move. An Avenue South buyer is waiting to break even. The loan terms were nearly identical. The entry price was not.

Why "later" has a price

The lease on your flat is quietly repricing it

Owners who plan to "sort it out in a few years" are selling a shorter lease each year they wait. Buyers this year paid S$708,000 for a 4-room with 80 or more years left, and S$550,000 for one with 50 to 59. That gap widens as flats cross 60 and then 50 years.

This is not a reason to panic. It is the reason the equity from step one should be counted now, while it is at its largest.

Remaining leaseMedian priceSales 2026Spread
80 years or moreS$708,0003,525
70 to 79 yearsS$579,5001,644
60 to 69 yearsS$588,0001,384
50 to 59 yearsS$550,0001,465
Under 50 yearsS$530,888169

HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg, 4-room flats, all towns, 1 Jan to 18 Sep 2026, grouped by remaining lease at sale. Town and size mix differs between bands, which is why 60 to 69 sits slightly above 70 to 79; the framework shows the bands town by town.

How the second move is judged

The Second Move Framework, in four steps

This is the order I work through with every client before a cheque is written. None of it needs a showflat visit. All of it needs the transaction record.

What's inside the PDF

Free, six chapters, updated for 2026

Sent to your WhatsApp within a working day. No call is required to receive it.

  • Equity worksheetFill in your flat, purchase year, loan and CPF used. It returns the real figure you can put down on the second move.
  • The 243-project tableEvery project in the five-year comparison, sorted by gain, with district, region and caveat counts.
  • Exit-buyer checklistThe questions to answer about the person who buys from you, before you commit to any unit.
  • 4-room lease bands, every townWhat buyers paid this year for each remaining-lease band in your own town, so you know what waiting is costing.
  • ABSD, LTV and TDSR, worked throughThe three rules that decide whether you sell first, buy first or hold both, with the 2026 figures.
  • Three worked casesAn HDB upgrader, a first condo owner and a downsizer, each taken through the four steps with real caveats.
Send me the framework Free. No obligation.
Stella Thio
Who put this together

Stella Thio

PropNex Realty Pte Ltd · CEA [CEA no.]

  • 14Core Central Region developments where Stella served as Project Chief, from launch to sell-out.
  • 5×PropNex Millionaire, 2020 to 2024.
  • 6×Champion Luxury Tagger.
  • —Former Senior Dealing Director. Economics and Statistics, National University of Singapore.
"I have sat on the developer's side of the table for fourteen projects. I know exactly how a launch is priced, and which buyers the numbers are quietly working against. The framework is what I would want someone to have shown me before my own first purchase."

[Credentials as supplied in the brief. Confirm with Stella, then delete this line.]

What clients say

What clients have said, in their own words

[rating]★★★★★[Google rating and review count]
“

Sample review — replace before go-live

Sample nameHDB upgrader · [month year]
“

Sample review — replace before go-live

Sample nameFirst condo buyer · [month year]
“

Sample review — replace before go-live

Sample nameInvestor · [month year]
Your second move starts with a number

Stop paying it off. Start building from it.

The framework will not tell you to buy anything. It will tell you what you hold, what the record says about where the gains have been, and how to judge a unit by its entry price. What you do with that is yours.

  • 01

    Send the form

    Takes under a minute. Four fields.

  • 02

    The PDF reaches your WhatsApp

    Within a working day, from Stella directly.

  • 03

    Apply it, or ask

    Reply with your flat and the project you are looking at and Stella will run the four steps for you. Only if you want.

Send me the framework

Free PDF. Your details go to Stella only.

Please enter your name.
+65
Enter an 8-digit Singapore mobile number starting with 8 or 9.
Please enter a valid email address.
Pick the one closest to you.

No obligation. No hard sell. Tell us to stop at any time.

By sending this you agree to be contacted by phone, SMS, email or WhatsApp about your request, under the PDPA. Tell us to stop at any time and we will.

Send me the framework